{"id":3718,"date":"2011-08-03T09:30:15","date_gmt":"2011-08-03T13:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.synchrosecrets.com\/synchrosecrets\/?p=3718"},"modified":"2011-10-27T16:35:45","modified_gmt":"2011-10-27T20:35:45","slug":"the-cone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/themysticalunderground.com\/?p=3718","title":{"rendered":"The Cone"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The cone is a dreaded phrase in South Florida at this time of year. It refers to the cone of probability that appears in every hurricane forecast. The farther out in time the forecast extends, the wider the cone gets.<\/p>\n

As you can see from the image above, this is the cone of probability for Tropical Storm Emily. As of 11 PM on August 1, the National Hurricane Center <\/a> forecast\u00a0 that the storm\u2019s projected path would take Emily across the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon (August 3), before moving toward the Bahamas, with a possible landfall along the South Florida coast on Saturday afternoon, August 6, as a category 1 hurricane. \u00a0This means sustained winds between 74-95 mph.<\/p>\n

Last week, I mentioned to Rob that we needed to have someone out here to look at a leak in our porch roof and also around a skylight in our kitchen. I was remembering how during our last hurricane in October 2005, the skylights \u2013 we have four of them \u2013 vibrated so fast and loudly in the wind that they filled the house with a kind of scary music. The\u00a0 other day, during a routine thunderstorm, I noticed water dripping down from the kitchen skylight and pooling on the floor. In a hurricane, the structural integrity of your home depends to a large degree on the condition of your roof, skylights, and windows.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a possibility that Emily will veer north, out into the Atlantic, before ever brushing Florida or any other part of the U.S. coast. That\u2019s the scenario we\u2019re visualizing. But tomorrow or the next day, I\u2019ll head over to the grocery store \u2013 not just to pick up extra supplies, but to get a readout on what other people are feeling.<\/p>\n

In the past, I\u2019ve found that the collective sense about where a hurricane will make landfall may be more accurate than the hurricane center\u2019s forecast. If the aisle with bottled water is completely empty, if there isn\u2019t a single pack of batteries or bag of charcoal on the shelves, if the fresh fruit bins are bare, if shelves of canned goods are so stripped down that only canned beets or lima beans remain, then it\u2019s likely the hurricane will make landfall.<\/p>\n

My other indicator is wildlife. If, around Thursday, August 4, we find ants sneaking into the house in great numbers, if there\u2019s a scarcity of birds in the neighborhood, if the squirrels aren\u2019t ravaging the mangos on our trees, then the hurricane probably will make landfall.\u00a0 On Friday, August 5, if Emily is going to visit our area, our pets will start registering minute fluctuations in barometric pressure and either won\u2019t go outside or will dart out to do their business and return fast.<\/p>\n

I recall at least once instance years ago when Fort Lauderdale, where we lived at the time, was under a hurricane warning \u2013 i.e., a hurricane was predicted to hit within 24-36 hours. But our cat wasn\u2019t picking up anything unusual even eight to ten hours before the hurricane was supposed to make landfall. He went about his usual routine, chasing lizards, lazing in the sun. That\u2019s when I knew the forecasters were wrong. Sure enough, the hurricane made a sudden unexpected turn away from the coast.<\/p>\n

This is when our animal buddies become extraordinary messengers. Maybe the planetary empaths among us will pick up something.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

PS As of the evening of August 2, the cone has been moved farther to the east. Florida is still at the edge of the cone, but hopefully we’ll just get a lot of rain, which we need!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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