So far in this hurricane season, the Atlantic basin has been lucky. It’s been quiet. Maybe that’s the way nature balances itself after a horrendous hurricane season in 2017 that set records. That flooded Houston. Destroyed Puerto Rico’s infrastructure. Did some major damage to our house. The damage to our place is now in the process of repair – new roof, new dry board, new paint job. But Puerto Rico is still suffering and the death toll there has been adjusted – from 64 to nearly 3,000.
But here we are in early September, when the hurricane season tends to ramp up, and we have a potential cyclone coming off the coast of Africa. Notice the terminology. Potential. The National Hurricane Center predicts that at day 5 (today) there’s a 90 percent chance of development. But notice that in the graphic, the system begins turning toward the west northwest, but is still well away from the U.S. mainland. If it remains on that course shown in the graphic, it looks like it might hit North Carolina.
I’m writing this on August 30. Today, September 5, how do things look? Well, somewhat better in terms of forecast:
Best wishes for a continued quiet hurricane season down there. I’m still fascinated by the notion that they can predict, with 90% certainty, that a storm is going to form a week or more before it does. That’s high on my (constantly growing) list of things to read about – the details of how those forecast models work. Interesting stuff.
The prediction part seems like it’s part science, part art!
Have been watching Florence. I think she’s headed to North Carolina or farther up the coast. Or to Bermuda.
We got a lot of rain from tropical storm Gordon, who seemed to appear out of nowhere. He’s headed into the gulf.