Probability vs. luck

Back when I was kid in middle school, called junior high in those days, two or three friends and I would hang out in the boy’s locker room after gym class for a few minutes and flip coins, calling heads or tails. If you guessed it, you got it. If not, you paid the nickel, dime or quarter.

At first, I just watched, probably because I didn’t have any change in my pocket. But one day I took my turn and correctly guessed nine of ten flips, and cleaned up. The next day, my luck continued. I just knew whether it was going to be heads or tails, and that baffled the other guys. After that we didn’t play the game anymore, and that was the end of it. I’ve tried to repeat the phenomena a number of times, but never seem to get much better than the average – 50-50. Maybe it was because money was involved that my focus was stronger and I was somehow able to ‘see’ whether it would be heads or tails.

The memory of that experience came back to me recently when I was reading about a 17th century French gambler named Antoine Gombaud chevalier de Mere. Until 1654, de Mere did quite well at the gambling tables. Then his luck changed so he decided to invoke probability theory to help his cause.

One of de Mere’s favorite wagers involved four rolls of a single die. To win, he had to roll a six at least once. Because of his success, no one would wager against him. So he changed the game to include a pair of dice. He wagered that he would roll a double six within 24 tosses.  De Mere believed that he would win two out of three times. But instead, he lost regularly.

Unable to find the flaw in his own logic, de Mere wrote to his friend Blaise Pascal, one of France’s most famous mathematicians. Even though Pascal wasn’t a gambler, he was fascinated by the question. He recruited fellow philosopher Pierre de Fermat and they corresponded over a four-month period. The result was Traite du Triangle Arithmetique, a landmark book of probability theory.

Pascal and Fermat found that de Mere was a long way from the two thirds odds he had imagined. Actually, his chances of winning were less than even–49 in 100. However, by adding one roll, the odds improved to 51 out of 100. To reach his favored two out of three wins, he would have to allow for 39 rolls.

While gamblers who win consistently are probably using probability theory to their advantage, I think there’s another factor at play – the power of the mind to affect or detect the roll of the dice, the flip of a coin, or the turn of a card. However, as soon as the process turns repetitive and monotonous, the average goes down. It seems that over time even the lure of large piles of chips ultimately loses its appeal and the psychic advantage fades.

I’d like to hear how others with psi abilities perform in games of chance.

 

 

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17 Responses to Probability vs. luck

  1. Nicole says:

    Hello my friends! WordPress has been good to you? I hope so.

    Well, I don’t know about psi situation here, but I have been to Vegas a few times and I know the odds are terrible, but boy am I good at roulette! Except here’s the thing I can’t put any chips down until the very last second, right before the dealer magically waves his or her hand over the board. I have to have that split second vibe hit me, the first number or color that pops into my head. I have played for several rounds winning on each one, before my confidence begins to fade as I gather up the winning chips. Soon I become distracted by the noise and people. I should say that I usually am most lucky when I am alone at the table. If my husband or another family member or friend is standing next to me it somehow throws off my intuition. I have won up to $500. But I am not a gambler so I have never pushed it any further. Funny though – it was July when I won. (7)?

    Hope you guys are doing well and free from the hassles.

    Take care

    • rob and trish says:

      Just made a note to drop by your place tonight! Interesting, your description here. I’ve never been to vegas, but have gambled once in the bahamas. And once in Aruba. Never tried the tables, though, just the one-arm bandit.

    • Vicki D. says:

      I have also been very lucky at roulette. at a charity event I kept winning for half an hour straight to the point that the dealer was fascinated by it.
      When I stopped playing he asked me if I have been to Vegas and I said No I don’t like to gamble and he laughed.
      Every year I win ( and you would win prizes based on your winnings ) so now I stop or I help someone else win something.
      It is fun though!
      I did go to Atlantic City once and I was very good at picking winning slot machines, to the point that others noticed.

  2. Natalie says:

    I once picked 14 horse races in a row one Saturday arvo at a pub. This was to prove to my new BF that I was psychic.
    I also won the Melbourne cup every year between 1988 and 2006. I put 50 cents on as the bet, so there were never any large winnings. I knew if i started to put big money on, it would be taken away. The year I put $10 on, it went away. 🙂

    In general, I can pick things fairly well and they ‘glow’ like Vicki said.
    Having said that though, just recently I did some psychic tests online and was only very ordinary.

  3. I don’t gamble, at least not any more. I feel that, as with synchros, wins come in clusters or cycles all by themselves. There are times when you can do no wrong – so these are the times to bet heavily. There are also times when you simply can’t win – so you place the minimum bets.

    If we simply toss a coin for head or tails it never works out in a regular pattern. There will be a run of heads or maybe tails – 6 or 7 on the trot. Try tossing a coin 100 times.

    There is nothing psychic about this – and I’m saying this even though I believe in psychic powers and influences.

    Forecasting wins on horses, dogs etc. is different as with the use of psychic power it should be possible to get winners, at least some of the time. This is, of course, abusing such powers and there will be a ‘price’ to pay.

  4. karena says:

    This isn’t exactly a gambling thing….but the other day while shopping…at the check out I slide my credit through the machine to pay…and instantly in my head I felt and heard the word decline….and that was what came up on the screen. I was declined!! It shouldn’t have been declined seeing that all my bills were paid, and I still had plenty of credit left to use if need be….but just my thought of it seemed to make it appear on the screen, and the guy at the store said try it again…I did and the second time it was fine. I felt like I had a hand in that happening…and believe me that was a first!…and I hope the last! lol!

  5. Debra says:

    I don’t gamble. The few times I have, were spontaneous. A football pool (I won $150.00). Slot machines: 4X won between 5.00-25.00 (after subtracting cost of play).
    The one interesting win that happen was when I was studying Uranian astrology. I was doing a technique were you move the natal chart with transits on a 90 degree dial. The Midheaven (“M”) moves every few minutes. During this particular day, the “M” line up with formulas for winning money, but the window was 1/2 hour. I said to my husband “We’re going to the grocery store to buy lottery tickets. How much do you have?” He said we had $2 (yes folks, we were THAT poor!).”Um, Debra, you don’t play lottery.”
    I replied, “I know, but the Uranian dial says I’ll win w/in the next half hour.” Off we went, bought 2 scratch-offs, and won $38.00.)

  6. Nancy says:

    I can attest to the casinos watching for any type of psychic ability. They spend an enormous amount of time and money looking for anyone who might have an advantage, including card counters. The floor is always watched from above. Always. They also have pit bosses that personally watch tables where gamblers are winning. Living in Nevada, I have to say I never gamble, so I really can’t speak to the psi of gambling. I hate to lose, and gambling is mostly about losing – it’s how the casinos make their money, and why Nevada doesn’t have a state income tax.

  7. I agree with you there, T and R. On a different but connected subject, here’s an ominous example of the relativity of numbers:

    JAPAN resonates to 15/6.
    REACTOR MELTDOWN resonates to 15/6.

    With this in mind, we watch for activities there that resonate to 15/6. Whoops. Today, 3-17-2011, resonates to 15/6 in our time zone. Yesterday in their time zone it was 3-17-2011,(15/6) and in reactor #4 (2011)the used storage containers began to meltdown. Today in their timezone is 3-18-2011, a 16/7, not much better, because the word MELTDOWN is 7. Not the best omens. Doesn’t mean it WILL happen, but it does indicate all the universal chess pieces are in place for it to occur.
    Let us all continue to send cooling thoughts to those reactors, espceially to reactor # 4 (because we are transiting 2011) and #6. (6 because Japan is #6)
    Remember, this year, 2011, is a 4, and what we’ve learned about mathematical relativity between numbers. All things being considered, reactor # 6 may develop sudden issues. before midnight

  8. Where any series of numbers is concerned, synchronicity is always involved. I’m not sure synchronicity is the correct term, although even after working in the arena for decades I don’t know what else to call it. It does have some basis in the science of numerology but actually goes much deeper and is much more mathematically specific than that. We live in a universe that is founded on a mathematical, (geometry/trigonometry/calculus), matrix, and everything that exists within this universe is relative to that matrix and can be traced to its source, much as a spider web, regardless of its intricate labyrinthine threads, can be traced to the spider, or the origin of the matrix. Here’s a simple example: 2011 resonates within the frequency that is measured by the root number 4. Throughout this year, it can very easy be established that anything and everything of import that occurs in 2011 will resonate or be compatible with the 4. So carrying this into gambling, if one is serious about a method for selecting a date or a time or even a lottery set of numbers, then the number of the particular date needs to be ascertained first. Example: today is St. Patrick’s Day, 3-17-2011. This carries a root frequency of 15, or 6. If a person wants to choose the lottery number for, say, a Play-Five card on this date, then select a series of numbers that, when added together, will equate to the root number 15, 0r 6, either/or. Carrying this method further, one can choose a series of numbers that are COMPATIBLE with 6….those numbers being 3 and 9. It can get complex, but the methods do work. Using ancient esoteric mathematical methodologies that preceded Pythagoras, (500BC) who is considered the father of modern mathematics, as the principle framework for creating a gambling technique system, one can study the relationships between the numbers. It’s best to become familiar with one’s own personal numbers and begin there, because that’s the Spider….the Source of the web to which every strand of the matrix is connected in terms of what may be happening in one’s own life, including winning the lottery or poker game or whatever. If a person carries the frequency of 7 as the prominant number, then play the game on a date that resonates within the 7 frequency and choose numbers that resonate to 7 or that are compatible with 7, which are 2 and 5. It’s dicey, (not to be a pun), but can be learned, and is fascinating to watch as the numbers fall into place.

  9. rob and trish says:

    I’ve heard that the security details in Las Vegas casinos keep an eye out for known psychics and some have been banned from the tables. Supposedly it happened to Uri Geller. That’s just a rumor. I don’t know if it’s true. Certainly it sounds good if you say you’ve been banned from Las Vegas casinos. I’d love to hear specifics on such stories.

    Connie, using psi abilities for gambling does seem like a self-indulgent and a lower use of such talents. However, I suspect the big winners are not only skilled players but talented intuitives, who put their abilities to that particular use. It doesn’t make them better people, or worse. But if they’re good, it makes them richer. What they do with their wealth is the telling factor on their personal and spiritual growth.

  10. Vicki D. says:

    I remember that coin game and also did well on it, actually to this day most people do not like to bet against me.

    In regards to your ability waning, as soon as I start to ” think” about it my success rate goes down. You have to relax and let it flow.

    One of my favorite stories like this is as follows:
    I was dating a nice guy back in the ’70’s who always would join in a friendly bet with his obnoxious friend . their favorite bet was who would win the football game each week and at the end of the season the loser had to buy the winner dinner.
    I was in college and did not know that much about football but I really disliked his friend.
    When the time came to choose who would win the game that week I asked my BF what 2 teams were playing and Dolphins “glowed” to me. He decided to trust my feeling and said that they would win even tho they were not favored. His friend laughed and said ok. The Dolphins won.
    Oh, my boyfriend lost the bet every year by the way.
    Anyway, I guessed every single game correctly that year and we won dinner out.
    It was great!
    His friend was so annoyed and then one day he looked at me and said it was you!
    I just smiled because even he knew the probability of someone getting EVERY game correct was improbable.
    All I needed was the teams names, no stats etc. I can still do it now except you usually need points etc. if it is just basic who will win I am pretty good at it.
    I am not that good at the lottery, I think because I tend to think of numbers. Although maybe I will test out just going with whatever number I get.

  11. I can’t tell you how many clients over the years have asked me to give them lottery numbers, which I refuse to even try to do because for me that’s a mis-use of psychic gifts. My hubby also has asked me to do that. I refuse. But one day in the grocery store I was busy in the grocery aisles and he was at the front counter buying lottery tickets. My mind was totally occupied with my shopping tasks. Hubby walked up to me and said, “give me three numbers”. Without thiunking about it at all I said “206”. He bought the card for three numbers, played those numbers, and that evening the 206 came in. Wasn’t much money, but it was interesting because it made me realize that spontaneously picking the numbers without any forethought at all, had won. There was another time when we were on vacation here before we moved from GA, and our new car had an issue. No banks were open, there were no ATMs then, so we were stuck over the long holiday weekend and had pretty much used up our vacation funds. Hubby told me if I’d pick dogs to win at the track, he’d borrow a friend’s car and go and see if he could win enough money to get the car out of the shop. I know zero to nothing about dog racing and betting. However, I told him to get a program (available at the stores) then leave me alone with it. I didn’t have a clue what I was doing. He got the program for me then took the three boys to the beach. I sat cross-legged in the midle of the motel bed with the program, and didn’t read any instructions or odds or anything. I just looked at the NAMES of the dogs, and focused on those. I chose the winners according to the names that “called” to me. I instructed hubby to not change anything no matter what the odds light look like; to play the dogs I marked. Some of them seemed to have no chance at all to win. But, each of them did win, and hubby won EXACTLY enough money to get the car out of the shop, to the very penny! One other time I had a frequent client, an RN Practitioner, who owns two non-profit AIDS facilities in Jacksonville. I’ll call her Patty. Patty was at the end of her funding for both facilities and was struggling to keep them open. She asked me if I would consider asking Spirit for numbers for sufficient money to keep the facilities going until more funding could be raised. I’d never agreed to asked for lottery numbers before, but under those circumstances, I had a hunch it would be OK and nothing ventured, nothing gained. I gave her numbers, seemingly just off the top of my head because I wasn’t in an altered state, and told her the date to play those numbers. Well, the numbers came in straight, and she won enough cash to keep the AIDS centers going until her funding foundations came through again. She also very kindly gave me a portion of the winnings. Beyond these experiences, even though I’m a mathematician, I don’t gamble. But each of those experiences brought a different lesson for me. “Spontaneous” was one lesson. “Need” was another lesson. And “the desperate needs of others” was the third lesson. Hubby still asked me for numbers, but because there is no specific “need”, I won’t do it. It wouldn’t work if I did, anyway.

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