The cone is a dreaded phrase in South Florida at this time of year. It refers to the cone of probability that appears in every hurricane forecast. The farther out in time the forecast extends, the wider the cone gets.
As you can see from the image above, this is the cone of probability for Tropical Storm Emily. As of 11 PM on August 1, the National Hurricane Center forecast that the storm’s projected path would take Emily across the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon (August 3), before moving toward the Bahamas, with a possible landfall along the South Florida coast on Saturday afternoon, August 6, as a category 1 hurricane. This means sustained winds between 74-95 mph.
Last week, I mentioned to Rob that we needed to have someone out here to look at a leak in our porch roof and also around a skylight in our kitchen. I was remembering how during our last hurricane in October 2005, the skylights – we have four of them – vibrated so fast and loudly in the wind that they filled the house with a kind of scary music. The other day, during a routine thunderstorm, I noticed water dripping down from the kitchen skylight and pooling on the floor. In a hurricane, the structural integrity of your home depends to a large degree on the condition of your roof, skylights, and windows.
There’s a possibility that Emily will veer north, out into the Atlantic, before ever brushing Florida or any other part of the U.S. coast. That’s the scenario we’re visualizing. But tomorrow or the next day, I’ll head over to the grocery store – not just to pick up extra supplies, but to get a readout on what other people are feeling.
In the past, I’ve found that the collective sense about where a hurricane will make landfall may be more accurate than the hurricane center’s forecast. If the aisle with bottled water is completely empty, if there isn’t a single pack of batteries or bag of charcoal on the shelves, if the fresh fruit bins are bare, if shelves of canned goods are so stripped down that only canned beets or lima beans remain, then it’s likely the hurricane will make landfall.
My other indicator is wildlife. If, around Thursday, August 4, we find ants sneaking into the house in great numbers, if there’s a scarcity of birds in the neighborhood, if the squirrels aren’t ravaging the mangos on our trees, then the hurricane probably will make landfall. On Friday, August 5, if Emily is going to visit our area, our pets will start registering minute fluctuations in barometric pressure and either won’t go outside or will dart out to do their business and return fast.
I recall at least once instance years ago when Fort Lauderdale, where we lived at the time, was under a hurricane warning – i.e., a hurricane was predicted to hit within 24-36 hours. But our cat wasn’t picking up anything unusual even eight to ten hours before the hurricane was supposed to make landfall. He went about his usual routine, chasing lizards, lazing in the sun. That’s when I knew the forecasters were wrong. Sure enough, the hurricane made a sudden unexpected turn away from the coast.
This is when our animal buddies become extraordinary messengers. Maybe the planetary empaths among us will pick up something.
PS As of the evening of August 2, the cone has been moved farther to the east. Florida is still at the edge of the cone, but hopefully we’ll just get a lot of rain, which we need!
Just in from twitter feed:
“Emily has degenerated into a tropical wave near Hispaniola. No more advisories are being issued at this time.”
Yay!
We back onto a reserve. When I can no longer hear the birds, or the dogs across the other side of the reserve, I know I am in trouble. Great post.
♥♥
When Mercury is retro, as it is now, my planetary empath symptoms get warped. This is something I’ve begun to recognize awhile back. However, when the barametric pressure begins to fall below 30.00, my symptoms kick in, and because we have that particular low out there now, my symptoms are acting up. All I want to do is sleep, and the right ear (indicating the right of me, or east of me) is doing a new “drumming” sound that started not too long ago in advance of traumatic events, natural, global, or personal. There’s a high pressure trough that may….MAY….push Emily into a curve to the east, if she doesn’t break up over the land masses. The problem is that the ocean water is so hot right now, which feeds these storms, as all of us in hurricane alley understand. Like you, I watch the animals. Domestic and wild, especially the seabirds. When they begin to fly inland if a storm is approaching within a few hundred miles, even if it’s several days away, we plan to head for the hills. Literally. The gulls and sandpipers and other sea birds fly away from the water if the storm is going to come close. They’re a dependable predictor, like the groceries disappearing from the shelves.
I absolutely go with wildlife and the pets on this too. We’ve had tornado warnings a lot lately, and the pets are able to pick up on when we should hit the basement long before the alarm is sounded. All the more reason to love and care for both the pets and wildlife…we need and rely on them.
Hoping for the hurricane to fizzle out. Keep safe.
where do birds go in tornadoes? I always wonder where they hide out during hurricanes. Fortunately, emily is only a tropical storm at this point.
YES! This is what I always wonder as well!
love your grocery barometer! we do the same thing here in terms of winter storms – certainly hope you all get the rain you need without the storm! please keep us posted – oh, and here’s an interesting little article about our animal kingdom’s responses to natural disasters –
https://www.ehow.com/list_6186158_signs-show-before-natural-disaster.html
This is a very intuitive way of living. Being aware of the consciousness of others is a great barometer of things to come – a good example is the “eggs” registering a huge shift in consciousness just before 911. It is also a good time to have an emergency plan in place – no matter where you live.
Emily – what a sweet name for a Tropical Storm! How bad could “she” be?
Emily…it IS a sweet name. May she fall apart, please, over the mountains on Hispaniola.
I’m praying with you on that!
Thanks! Off to check the 5 PM update
a bit off track but not too far is this – the governor of PA is now doing regular PAs on local tv channels for everyone to have an emergency preparedness kit ready for the entire family – not that it isn’t a good idea anyway – and it is – but wonder what he knows that we don’t? and where’s jesse ventura when we need him? 😉
Hmm. Related to this FEMA camp stuff, do you think??
i think now all related to the NASA emergency warning memo to their employees/families that nancy posted about today – the november 2011 solar issues –
Luckily, where I am, tropical storms are just something we read about and see the results on television. But the farmers say that their animals sense forthcoming weather conditions, though nothing as dramtic as a hurricane. But the signs are there of when it will rain heavily and so on. Most of us humans seem to have lost this natural instinct or sense.
You are welcome to some of our rain if you need it!
Thanks for the rain – in advance!