Cone of Uncertainty

See that white border that extends over South Florida? It’s the dreaded “cone of uncertainty” that all South Floridians recognize. Maybe, for us, it’s an archetype that warns us to pay close attention. This cone belongs  to Hurricane Rina, forecast to become a category 3 storm tonight, with winds in excess of 111 mph.

Six years ago today, another late season hurricane – Wilma – hit South Florida.It had weakened by the time it passed over the peninsula,  but at its height, was a category 5 hurricane, with winds in excess of 155 mph, and the most intense hurricane ever. Her barometric  pressure was 882 millibars.  When it stalled over our town, it was supposedly a category 1, but at one point our front door threatened to pop out of its frame. We wrote about it here.

I don’t like these late season hurricanes. They’re often tricksters, like Wilma was. With just a month left to hurricane season (November 30 is the official end of the season) people have grown complacent and cocky. Hey, we got through another season with no hurricane. That’s six years now.

So after I looked at the 11 PM forecast tonight at the National Hurricane Center’s site, I felt…uneasy.  One forecast model brings this storm over South Florida, just south of Miami. I turned to my usual online I Ching site and asked if Hurricane Rina would hit us. I’m not too happy about the hexagrams I got: number 21, Biting Through, with 4 changing lines -1, 2,3, 4.

On 21, from the Richard Wilhelm version: “This hexagram represents an open mouth with an obstruction between the teeth. As a result,  the lips cannot meet. To bring them together, one must bite energetically through the obstacle.”

The four changing lines address feet fastened in stocks, a nose vanishing, something poisonous, and biting down on dried, grisly meat. Not of this is particularly good. It brings back memories of other hurricane seasons, particularly the aftermath when there was no power, the heat was awful, and no stores or gas stations were open. Our generator, bought in 2005 and still  in the box, can power perhaps one appliance and a couple of lamps.

With these changing lines, the hexagram changes to one of my least favorite in the I Ching: hexagram 18, Work on What Has Been Spoiled. “We must not recoil from work and danger – but must take hold energetically.”

Yeah, ok. Batten down the hatches, then get busy for the cleanup in the aftermath.

But when you look at the potential path of this hurricane, there’s a chance it moves through the 90 miles of open water between Cuba and South Florida and out into the Atlantic. That’s our hope.

Honestly, I think it’s time to move elsewhere.

 

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23 Responses to Cone of Uncertainty

  1. 3322mathaddict says:

    I’ve come to the conclusion that Mother Nature spares no place on her planet. There are weather-related incidents no matter where we go. If I could, in spite of the heat, I’d live in Giza, near the Pyramid. Or, close to the Georgia Guidestones. The Stones sit on a 35-mile long, five-mile wide, two-mile deep vein of solid granite, and no unstable fault lines. It gets cold there, but they have four distinct seasons. My only problem is that 99.99% of the rural population there is fundamental evangelical bible thumpers, and many wear the pointed white head-dress and white robes. I probably wouldn’t last a week up there before they’d be burning me at the stake or hanging me from a tree! 😉

  2. Natalie says:

    p.s. The new blog header is beautiful.

  3. Natalie says:

    Everywhere seems to be volatile doesn’t it? We have had earthquakes, floods and constant fires where I am. Still, I feel relatively safe as long as I am living on a hill. I get weird about being in the lower suburbs. Hmm……
    @ Mike – narky is one of my favourite words. 😀

  4. Lauren Raine says:

    so sorry to hear of your concern………and not very happy I Ching readings. I might suggest Arizona, where we never have much in the way of storms or earthquakes, but we get fires. But I think you would not like living away from the water………

    I’m hoping the storm passes well out of harms way.

    • R and T says:

      The good news is that it looks like the storm is weakening. Some models say it could take an abrupt right turn downward into Cuba. Arizona….hmmm.. sedona??

  5. Acer 3005wlmi Battery says:

    Will Rina be downgraded to a Tropical Storm when she nears south Florida? I’m on a hurricane list at work

  6. D Page says:

    Don’t move here. Today we have a Santa Anna wind (hot dry desert wind) advisory with fire alerts.

    Then there’s those quakes. And the Pacific Rim.

    I Ching: I was taught that if there is more than three changing lines, you can do the question over, after a little time has passed.

  7. I can’t imagine what that worry may be like year after year. It’s dark and overcast where I am and the forecast for tomorrow is rain – and I get narked over that!
    Take care.

    • R and T says:

      narked! I love that word. Have never heard it. Narked, narked…yes, I like that a lot!

      • Darren B says:

        In Brisbane the local media is already talking up the flood scenarios again as we approach the summer storm season.
        They are saying that we will be copping a similar summer to last year…and that wasn’t good for most of the state.
        So,I don’t think there is really any safe spots on the planet.
        With earthquakes,floods,wild storms,terrorism,etc. I don’t think
        you can really guarantee a safe place anywhere.Although I have to say that I feel pretty safe where I am…but you really never know.

      • Sorry, shouldn’t use English slang!

  8. gypsy says:

    wow! what an i-ching reading! geeeeezzeee…..BUT – the thing is that there is still that 90 mile area where it can turn – i’m voting for that! and the thing of being as safe as you can be wherever you are – i was thinking that very thing when i read your words – maybe it’s time to relocate – and wondered, where in today’s world, the “safest” or “best” place might be – in terms of natural disasters and political and other unrest, the world has shrunk so much in just the last 20 years [to me, anyway] and seems to shrink more with each passing day – all that said – just hit the stores for some extra water, candles, bath tissue and canned goods along with a good manual can opener and lots of batteries – and if need be, enjoy some down time from your computer work – i know – easy for me to say, but said caringly! 😉

  9. Melissa says:

    But where would you move? This year alone we got hit with a hurricane and an earthquake in NYC…and the year before a tornado tore through Brooklyn and damaged our roof! It’s a different world now, I think she wants some of us to leave already!

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