Here is a meteorological challenge for anyone interested. You don’t have to be psychic to participate, but that might help!
Every year, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University issue hurricane forecasts for the season, which goes from June 1 to November 30. They predict the number of named storms, the number of storms that will be hurricanes of category 3 or above, and how many will make landfall, and how many will hit the continental U.S.
Some years, they are fairly close in their estimates. Other years, not so much. They have been known to backtrack in mid-season, re-assess and re-write their predictions. Not fair. Sounds like cheating, in our opinion. Let’s see if we can do better.
So please sharpen your intuition and take part in our Hurricane Watch 2012 Sweepstakes by addressing three of those issues: 1) how many named storms will form between June 1-Nov. 30, 2) how many will be Cat 3 hurricanes or higher, and 3) how many hurricanes (cat. 1 & above) will hit the U.S.
One stipulation. Please don’t look up any predictions that have already been made. Keep your logical mind out of the picture. This is an intuitive quest.
But to give you a reference point. Last year, there were 19 named storms, four major hurricanes and one struck the continental U.S. – Irene, a cat. 3, which hit North Carolina. And just to start things off, we’ll make our prediction here and now: 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 0 U.S. landfalls. (Of course, living in South Florida, we are somewhat biased in our prediction on that last category!)
Good luck. We’ll accept entries until May 10. Tell you friends. If you hit it right in all three categories, you will receive a free flight into the eye of a Cat 5 hurricane, courtesy of the National Weather Bureau’s hurricane tracker program. (Sorry – just kidding on the prize, but you will get an ‘I beat NOAA Hurricane Forecasters’ certificate!)
20 named storms.
5 cat3 or higher
4 hitting coast including hitting Long Island NY.
I feel more of the storms hitting or affecting areas north of the South Fla. area.
Hmm, long Island?? Didn’t one hit there way back when?
We got hit last August and I feel we are going to get hit again.
I feel it will be very stormy all over the East coast this season but that it will be affecting more of the central to northern areas of the east coast.
a: 22
b: 8
c) 12
duly noted, Nina!
(1) 17 named
(2) 5 cat 3+
(3) 1 and a half hitting the coast.
Ha ha I forgot to check the box indicating I was human last time, so my mighty psychic prowess has been destroyed by having to second guess myself. Therefore I get the prize by default, even if this answer is wrong.
19 named
10 cat 3+, 4 more than that
5 on the eastern seaboard. I don’t pay attention to the other side. Does the other side ever get hit with anything? Okay okay, 7. But 1 will be a minor scrape and another will be a weak landfall.
The Carolinas are due a major windfall. It’s been a while. That’s common sense: things go in cycles and all that.
Never knew the weather folks tried to predict these numbers before. Too bad I don’t get a nifty plane ride. I would love that.
Let’s stick with the East Coast – that’s what we’re measuring against NOAA’s prediction. The West Coast gets typhoons. Same thing, I guess. But off our radar for this psychic test. BTW, if your forget to click ‘I am human’ just hit the back button and won’t lose what you wrote.
Okay,
Just a blast no thinking
40 named
16 cat 3 +
12 hits.
This includes east coast and west coast…
laurence
Yikes!
Know nothing about hurricanes but:
1) Named: 14
2) Cat 3+: 8
3) US: 4
Duly noted!
We live on the eastern FL coastline on the beach, but I will refrain from entering the “numbers of hurricanes” contest as I’ve heard here and there what local forecasters are reporting what the hurricane experts predict….some say many, some say few, they aren’t in agreement at all, so the contest should be fun. I’m no expert by any means, but this I do know: tropical storms feed on warm water, and the water is already HOT. This of course is the water at the beaches so is close to the surafce and sunlight and air temperatures. But even deeper, according to the professional fishermen, the ocean is HOT. And this is just May, not even in the hurricane season yet. So, it shall be an interesting chess game to see which of the experts are right and which of them are wrong. Weather overall for the last twelve months has been rare all over the place. My sister in MO had baseball-sized hail two days ago. Can you imagine?? In any event, if told to evacuate if a storm heads towards us, we are OTD!!!